Here’s why Bitcoin (#BTC) rally started and whether it will continue

Many of you are scratching your heads about current #BTC levels and most frequent question I get is “BTC long or short?”

Here’s my take on this:



  1. Trend

Looking at the 200-day average, it is quite clear that the rally had a solid foundation. Here’s an amusing chart of critical breaks


BTC 18 month chart

BTC 18 months 200 days
BTC 18 month chart


Remember the start? On 01 April (ironically), when BTC jumped from US$4 to US$5K in a matter of 45 minutes?

While, at first, it seemed like a short pump, it’s been 7 weeks now, and we’re still breaking new resistance levels with increase in volumes correspondingly.


  1. Trading volumes

I would be very sceptic on this bull run if it would not be supported by a very strong volume, which is indeed the case.

CME Group BTC Futures hit US$ 1.3 Billion. BitMEX registered an all-time record in more than US$ 10 Billion trading in USD-BTC pair.


Even considering factors like “whale pumping” and fake volumes, while I agree that they might have been a factor setting off initial rally, these would run out of steam much earlier than at current US$ 8K average.


  1. Institutional footprint

While 1-2 years ago it would have been unthinkable for institutions to invest in crypto, JP, Fidelity, Citi and more are setting up or already running crypto services.



  1. Adoption

You can now actually use BTC to purchase good beyond Darknet. Vendors like Nordstrom, Whole Foods, Amazon, Crate and Barrel are accepting Bitcoin. Starbucks and eBay are rumored to start accepting BTC soon.

Bitcoin acceptance
Bitcoin acceptance


Flexa, developer of cryptocurrency app called Spedn, convinced Regal Cinemas, GameStop and Baskin Robbins to use their services to accept crypto and receive payouts either in FIAT or crypto instantly much like credit card.


It will be interesting to see what happens today once Binance goes into operation mode again: it’s largest Altcoin exchange by a long shot, and once it’s opened, there are 2 major extremes that circulate: “BTC dump” or “Altcoin rally”. In my, humble, opinion, nothing will happen, which is roughly in-between these scenarios.




Summary: nothing goes up forever, there will be a correction at some point, rather sooner, but looking on a long-term trend, I would not wait for a correction to US$4.2 (some circulating opinion). Yes, you might see some red for a few days or weeks, but if you are buying to hold (HODL), it does not really matter whether you enter at US$8K or US$7.2K.
This is a volatility we see within of 1 trading day.


Personally, I would hate to be on a side of cautious waiting what happens and get a punch in a face with each following bull run. Having said it, I am currently largely out of BTC (took profits) maintaining buy orders at lower levels.


just hodl it
Just hodl it