As posted before, I am fine-tuning algo trading bots of own making, and recent Bitcoin (BTC) movements became an enigma to me: bots did not see a short pattern and went long on positions just before dumps. Social sentiment was in line with this each time: parsing of Telegram groups, Reddit etc. supported breakout signals. Yet it happened again and again and again.
So here is what I came up with.
- Start: night of 14-15 July;
- Every couple of hours technical analysis builds a perfect triangle forcing all bots to go long (started off at 2 per day, currently indicates a new breakout almost on an hourly basis);
- Once the volume flats out (everyone filled longs), a massive dump takes place across major exchanges;
- Simultaneously, I can see a huge number of social signals in chats, telegram groups, message boards, reddit etc. Most of these are posted by low reputation/new users;
- Random events, that may or may not be part of play. Examples:
- On 14.07.2019 Tether Accidentally Printed $5 Billion Worth of USDT (I am a bit skeptical it could be an accident) it was burned following day, which created a first massive sell-off;
- Crypto maximalists (like John McAfee) usually don’t double down from their predictions. Last time I saw that was just before April 01 pump, when we saw BTC skyrocket from US$ 3’800 to US$ 5’300 within of 40 minutes;
- Facebook’s upcoming Libra is being used to full extent: both for pump and dump signals;
Now to even more speculative part… Assuming it is indeed a very well coordinated manipulation done by a very skilled and resourceful group, origin of IP’s posting contradicting trade signals (ones I could trace) are creating a circle in Asia-Pacific area. My guesstimate is that if there is an HQ, it is located somewhere on a border between Thailand and Malaysia. Why?
- It is a location of a major fibre cable hub (Connects Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, UAE, Cambodia);
- If I would plan such operation, an offshore HQ is an ideal solution: ability to move and quickly destroy all traces of operation;
- It is an ideal location for backup satellite internet: located almost at the Equator, it gives an extremely stable connection to major internet satellite providers (Iridium and Inmarsat);
Well, in theory it might be a deeper play than just dump to consolidate market and buy in at lower levels. As long as people, who missed out on a rally from US$ 3K to high US$13K have an ability to buy in at lower price – they will bring fresh liquidity to crypto market.
Current 66% dominance is already extreme, and is eating away capitalization of everyone else. Having a dominance of 70% and above gives you keys to control pretty much any crypto asset. Burning part of your assets for future control has a strategical upside even greater than a potential of buying in more at, say, US$6K, which is my guesstimate for current move.
An obvious disclaimer: above is a speculation, not statement of facts. Do your research.
P.S. Whales, if I nailed it, an invite to HQ would be highly appreciated.