I get a lot of questions on what’s going on with Bitcoin (BTC), and where the train is headed.
Instead of writing a reply individually, I would like to summarize my general perception here:
At this point I would suggest keeping an eye on bottom lines.
1. We are in the middle (or, rather, end) of biggest BTC consolidation cycle since beginning of year (we have all-time high in number in wallets holding 10BTC (US$75K+);
2. This year’s price rally that started in April confirmed that once there is volatility, especially in positive direction, interest in BTC awakes instantly;
3. Since July I’ve been hearing (from people who know this game well) there was a plan to dump price to mid-6K range. I think I even shared it with you in July, when price was at 12K;
This results in a few points:
1. Whales, who are able to manipulate price in their direction, are walking on thinning ice: if they dump the price below 6K – there will be limited interest. Since they are ultimately interested in higher price of their assets – pumping it will become increasingly expensive;
2. As I assumed/explained in August, there was a deeper play in place: to grow BTC dominance and use it to affect other digital assets. It worked out very well and seeing current drop in dominance (from 73% to current 65%), the play is over. They diversified their holdings with Ripple, ETH, BCH, ADA etc. and let go.
3. In a summary a more direct answer to your question:
I think the pump is coming very soon. Especially given a huge number of stable coins going live and taking BTC’s role for cross-border payments (for example BTC was the mainstream tool to bring money out of EU/Russia to China last year is now replaced with Tether almost completely. That’s a US$50-80M PER DAY business), BTC needs to become attractive for speculation.
There are only a few parties remaining that have any interest dumping BTC (and it has been proven they still do so): BitMEX, Binance, Huobi, Bitfinex.
However, with pressure from crypto community, regulations and decrease in BTC dominance these practices should decrease.